[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Tight Supply of Ferrochrome Drives Market Rise, Chrome Ore Futures Explore Upside with Short-Term Bullish Sentiment Prominent

On September 3, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,300-8,450 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 50-75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market maintained a strong and stable trend during the day. Beixin Materials announced its September 2025 steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 300 yuan MoM from August. Recently, the tight supply of ferrochrome has gradually become apparent. On one hand, South African chrome producer Glencore-Merafe indicated plans to reduce staff and suspend ferrochrome smelting operations without immediate production resumptions, which is expected to significantly reduce overseas ferrochrome imports and stimulate domestic producers to raise offers. On the other hand, after fulfilling long-term contracts and previous orders, ferrochrome producers face insufficient spot cargo and tight retail tradable volumes, leading to stronger reluctance to sell. In Inner Mongolia, high-carbon ferrochrome offers were concentrated in the range of 8,350-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Meanwhile, downstream stainless steel production is expected to further increase driven by peak consumption season optimism, while steel mills' raw material inventories remain tight, creating strong stocking demand for ferrochrome. The ferrochrome market is expected to hold up well with a generally stable and slightly rising trend.

Raw material side, on September 3, 2025, spot 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were offered at 56-57.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore at 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate at 64-65 yuan/mtu, flat from the previous trading day. In the futures market, 40-42% South African fines were offered at $275-278/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at $340-350/mt, up $2.

The chrome ore market remained stable during the day. In the spot market, Zimbabwean fines supply remained tight, with offers rising driven by increased demand from low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome price hikes, resulting in multiple transactions. High-quality South African raw ore offers rose to the +11-12 range. Rising futures prices boosted spot market confidence, with short-term bullish sentiment strengthening. As key periods are about to end and vehicle movement restrictions at Tianjin Port are lifted, ferrochrome producers are increasing purchases according to production schedules, leading to more inquiries. In the futures market, a large South African mine sold 40,000 mt of 40-42% chrome concentrate for a new round of futures at $278/mt, with a chrome-to-iron ratio of 1.4 and shipment before October 15. Chrome ore offers steadily increased, but the price rise was limited, constrained by high shipments and supply. Overseas ferrochrome production cuts drove an increase in chrome ore exports, while the subsequent supply surplus somewhat restrained the upward movement of chrome ore prices. Traders showed a stronger preference for taking over floating cargoes that could arrive at ports promptly. The chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily with a positive trend in the short term.